Three potential areas of conflict between Turkey and Russia

Ankara and Moscow will hold a high-level cooperation council meeting on March 9 and 10 in St. Petersburg. The meeting will be headed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the participation of a handful of ministers from both sides. The council meeting is considered to be a turning point in bilateral ties, which have been gradually rebuilt since mid-2016 after months of tension after Turkey's downing of a Russian warplane in November 2015.

Turkey expects Russia to fully lift sanctions imposed on trade after the downing and to facilitate visa procedures for Turkish nationals, particularly businesspeople. At the meeting in St. Petersburg the two sides will review all dimensions of current economic and energy cooperation and will explore potential joint actions, while also discussing all aspects of foreign policy issues. With nearly 10 days to go until the summit, today's picture of regional developments indicates a number of areas where the two sides can find themselves drawn into conflict.   

In Syria, Turkey and Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) troops recently took full control of al-Bab in northern Syria and came very close to the Syrian army positions south of the city. There have been reports of minor clashes between the Syrian army and the FSA, while the recently established Turkey-Russian hotline is said to have prevented these incidents from escalating into a major conflict.

However, there is still a risk of fresh encounters between Turkish and FSA troops and the Syrian army. The Russians are unhappy with Turkey's plans to go to further south or east in Syria with a next target as Raqqa or Manbij. President Erdoğan stressed on Feb. 28 that Turkey's next target will be Manbij, with an...

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