What next in Cyprus?

The latest attempt to reunite Cyprus failed intense negotiations in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, on July 7. The quintet talks under the auspices of U.N. Secretary-General was seen as the most promising occasion in years with two solution-minded leaders, Nicos Anastasiades of the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) and Mustafa Akıncı of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), in power on both sides of the divided island. Unfortunately, expectations were not enough to generate the long-desired solution.

The parties are blaming each other for the failure, though it should have been naïve; to paraphrase Einstein, to expect a different result by doing the same thing over and over again. Realpolitik tells us that the threat perceptions of Turkish and Greek Cypriots are diametrically contradicting each other and creating a highly problematic environment for a one-state solution.

The existing power structure on the island, with the RoC as an internationally recognized EU member state in the south and the TRNC facing international isolation in the north, creates inequalities and less than conducive atmosphere for an equitable solution, as it removes an important enticement for the Greek Cypriots. While the U.N.-sponsored talks, focusing on a bi-zonal and bi-communal federative solution, has been aiming at changing existing power sharing structure, it has been proven difficult to convince the Greek Cypriots to give up their lofty status as the status quo clearly favors them.

If the international community cannot change the material reality on the ground to bring about a negotiated solution, as is the case in Cyprus, then we could aim at changing political reality. For that, a seriously out of the box thinking is needed.

Turkish Cypriots have so...