The Guardian: Europe is Facing a Potential Crisis in the Balkans. It has to Act Soon

The second world war is over but the first world war is not yet finished." Those were the words of a senior Turkish official I met recently in Ankara. He was speaking of the Middle East, but it was the sort of comment I might well also have heard in Moscow, in Kiev or in the Balkans, about the state of affairs on the European continent.

The one place I couldn't possibly have heard this is Brussels. That's because the European Union is still unprepared to live in a world where geopolitics has returned - in which governments, as well as much of the public, are obsessed with borders and territories, and tend to define success less by economic growth than by national pride.

This is what's at play today in the western Balkans, where the EU's capacity to think and act as a geopolitical player is being severely put to the test. Earlier this month, the EU presented its new western Balkans strategy. Its stated aim is to encourage reform in Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia and Albania, by renewing the prospect of membership. That Brussels institutions, which find themselves in the midst of a populist upsurge affecting most EU countries, now appear to have the courage to restate that membership promise is no small miracle.

One Balkan joke best captures the mindset of people who feel they've been left waiting far too long: when it comes to EU membership, the difference between pessimists and optimists is that optimists believe Turkey will join during the Albanian EU presidency, while pessimists believe Albania will join during the Turkish EU presidency. Meaning: never.

Brussels is right to make it clear that the status quo is unsustainable. But without any follow-up, the announcement risks producing instability in the region....