Ukraine is a crisis―but not a Cold War

US Secretary of State John Kerry (L) reaches out to shake hands with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the start of a bilateral meeting to discuss the ongoing situation in Ukraine in Geneva April 17.

By Ian Bremmer *

Given Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the imposition of US and European sanctions, and the potential for more escalation in Ukraine, we are witnessing the most important geopolitical events since 9/11. Developments in Ukraine mark a tipping point. Relations between Washington and Moscow were already strained. With Russia now suspended from the G8 and more sanctions likely, relations are now fully broken. Various forms of East-West conflict are inevitable, with implications for Europe’s security, Russia’s stability, the future of the EU and NATO, and global energy markets.

But though tensions are here to stay and will probably get worse, this is not a new Cold War, nor will it become one. There are several reasons why.

First, Russia has neither powerful friends nor the power to win new ones. When the UN General Assembly voted on the legitimacy of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, just 10 countries sided with Russia. Support came from neighbors that Russia can coerce (Armenia and Belarus) and rogue states without international influence (Cuba, North Korea, Sudan, Syria, and Zimbabwe). Throw in traditionally sympathetic Latin Americans (Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua) and it’s clear that Russia lacks the Soviet Union’s ideological appeal: its allies are more aligned in their distaste for the established global order than in any alternative organizing principle that Russia can offer.

In addition, Russia’s GDP grew by just 1.3% last year and its increasing dependence on exported natural resources ensures that...