Erdoğan presidency unlikely to bring stability

Turkey is facing increasing risks on its borders. Syria was bad enough and now we have the situation in Iraq. Turkey also has strained relations with the West due to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s policies and generally abrasive attitude, which is seen as being authoritarian in nature.

The situation inside Turkey is no better. The government’s “Kurdish Opening” is facing an uphill struggle with the possibility that attacks by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) may resume. Recent events in Lice do not portend well in this respect.

Alevis, on the other hand, continue to be restless because they continue to believe they are being discriminated against due to their religious identity. This is a fault line that will remain active and can be aggravated by developments in the Middle East.

The western orientated educated urban elite, whose youth mostly comprised the Gezi Park protestors, also remains wary and restless, concerned that the secular Turkey it believes in is being eroded by Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Meanwhile the Soma disaster has shown the potential for labor strife in this country. Soma has injected a new sense of mission to the working class that union leaders will not want to squander. These are just some of the main points of tension within Turkey presently and there are others.

Given this backdrop, it is no wonder that there should be great discomfort over the prospect of Erdoğan running for the presidency in the Aug. 10 elections. It is generally assumed that he is likely to win, if he does, whether this victory comes in the first round of the elections or the second.

AKP supporters are relying on their victory at the local elections on...