Why is Erdoğan holding out over his candidacy?

There is a little over seven weeks to go before the elections, but the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has still not announced its candidate for presidency. Prime Minister Erdoğan said Tuesday, June 17, that they have until July 3 to do so. The oddity is everyone knows who the AKP’s candidate is.

So why is Erdoğan still reluctant to come out and openly say he is running? This can hardly be because he fears losing. The opposition’s joint candidate Ekmeleddin İhsanoglu is a good choice, of course. İhsanoglu as president would become Turkey better, given his urbane manners, as opposed to Erdoğan’s abrasive and divisive ways.

Few expect him to win against Erdoğan though. Erdoğan is slated to win by just about every analyst, whether he does so in the first round of voting or the second. There must, therefore, be other reasons why he has still not announced his candidacy. The most common view is he is worried about a debilitating power struggle within the AKP after his departure.  

President Abdullah Gül, who decided not to run for president in order not to block Erdoğan’s path, has also indicated he is not interested in heading the AKP and becoming prime minister. There are strong AKP voices calling on Gül to change his mind. He may do so for the sake of the party he co-founded.
But that possibility cannot be all that pleasing for Erdoğan either, given that he has made it clear he wants to exercise full powers as president. While Gül can keep the party from falling apart, he is not likely to be the subservient prime minister that Erdoğan wants.

Constitutionally, Gül will still be the head of the executive and he will want to make this apparent for the sake of his...