First results of the sectarian war in Iraq

With the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) taking over a very wide geography from the north of Iraq towards its center, we can say that not only within Iraq, but in the entire Middle East, power equilibriums are being disrupted; and as a consequence of this all the alliances in the region will re-shape. This creates several significant outcomes as summarized below:

Back to the beylik system: A widespread opinion is Iraq is losing its political unity and transforming into a chaotic country of three pieces: Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni, all homogenous within itself. Turkey has to live with the ISIL reality as its neighbor in the Iraqi border along with the Kurdish Regional
Administration. The situation in Syria is not any better. There are several regions there dominated by fundamental groups, Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD). The reality of the new era connotes the beylik (princedoms) system in Anatolia before the founding of the Ottoman Empire, a system where each beylik dominated a separate geographic location.

Al-Assad Strengthening: One of the most important consequences of this fragmentation process is Bashar al-Assad will strengthen his position in his own region. The Western world, against the fundamentalist threat spreading throughout the region, has come to the point where it would accept the Bashar al-Assad regime as a valid interlocutor despite all its sins.

Kurds as Winners: Another important aspect is the Kurdish Regional Administration, by silently annexing Kirkuk into its territory, has strengthened its position. In instability, the Kurdish zone will be perceived as a stable area in the eyes of the Western world. A possible alliance with the central government might result in the...

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