Can Öcalan risk Erdoğan’s win?

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters yesterday that he was going to have a “final meeting” with President Abdullah Gül before deciding on the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AK Parti) official candidate for the elections, the first round of which will be held on Aug. 10.

Following his address to the AKP party group on June 24, it became almost certain that Erdoğan wants to stand as the candidate, further diminishing Gül’s chance for a second five-year term. So why are they having this meeting? Just out of politeness?

It seems that Erdoğan still needs time to make his candidacy official, due to his contingency planning.
For some, when the social democratic main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) jointly backed the candidacy of Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu, the former secretary general of the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the key position held by the Kurds was weakened. This is because the mostly urban voters of both parties would not be likely to cut their summer holidays to return to their home towns in order to vote for İhsanoğlu, who they know little about. Erdoğan, who recently saw polls carried out for the AKP and is happy with the forecast of at least 52 percent, would therefore start placing less importance on Kurdish votes and would decided to go for Çankaya anyway.

For others, however, the naming of İhsanoğlu - who is actually also known as a respectable name outside Turkey - finally gave the opposition a plausible alternative to Erdoğan, after many long years. That actually strengthened the role of Kurdish votes for the second round. When asked, CHP leader Kemal...