Second-half expectations not optimistic

Expectations related to Turkey’s economy for the second half of the year are not as positive as they were in the first half. While it has become more difficult to attain the first half’s performance in production and employment, a course that will unfold depending on developments in the global economy seems inevitable.

Market players draw attention to the highness of the rates of return of stocks and bonds in the first half, arguing that it would be very difficult to reach these rates in the second half. For this reason, in those market reports prepared for investors, the saturation in Turkey in the rate of return is highlighted, cautioning care from now on.   

The first half of 2014 was positive in terms of risky assets; in both stocks and bonds markets, the return was positive. While developed country stock markets increased 5 percent in the first six months, the return in developing countries was 4.8 percent. However, returns in emerging bonds and bills markets exceeded 9 percent. In Turkish markets, the rising trend increased after March 30 elections.

While the Istanbul Stock Exchange BIST 100 index increased 15.8 percent in the first half of 2014, the average return in the bonds and bills market reached 12.6 percent.

There; it appears very difficult that the rates of return will reach these levels in the second half of the year. Not only in Turkey, but in all developing countries, it is difficult to catch these returns.

Because of recent positive production and employment data coming from the United States, it is now a matter of conversation that there is a possibility that the FED will increase interest rates sooner. While the markets are not expecting any interest rate hikes before mid-2015, now this...