2015: Neither a doomsday scenario nor a rosy picture on energy

The 2023 vision is of course very important in terms of serving as an “anchor” for government, business, civil society, international players and more importantly to us as individuals, as it provides a sense of the future direction and perspective. And as an overarching strategic framework, it should always shed light on our policy choices and business decisions.

However, currently no one is seriously interested in what is likely to happen eight years down the road. Attention is focused in large measure on 2015 when critical developments, risks and troubles are expected to occur, especially in the period ahead of general elections.

The forthcoming polls, the succession problem, the Kurdish settlement process, “the war with the ‘parallel structure,’” the fate of the 3 million-strong Syrian refugee population, the “precious loneliness” phenomenon that has paralyzed Turkish foreign policy, the timely rescheduling of the massive foreign debt, the controversial education  reforms, the surprises to anticipate with regard to the 100th anniversary of the “Armenian genocide,” the rampant corruption which has downgraded the country in the world league, et cetera – these are the issues the majority are talking, thinking, and worrying about.

In 2015 we will be desperate to hear good news more than ever and look for stories to help inspire us with hope and optimism. Turkey is inextricably linked to the global system. Decisions or choices by the U.S. Fed, China’s Politburo, OPEC and the European Commission can sometimes be more important than those of our own government in certain areas.

Therefore, let’s try to better understand some of the global dynamics that have the potential to affect us next year and beyond.
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