The Cyprus Spring

"Conflicts can only be solved when they are still hot," Henry Kissinger once famously said. But Cyprus seems to overrule this quote since the 50-years old question seems to be defrosting at last.

Actually, the current U.N.-supervised negotiations on the Cyprus question have been going on for a while and were expected to have ended by the start of 2016, with a referendum to be held in the early months of 2016. Yet the negotiations got stuck due to the disagreement between the two sides of the divided island over the sharing of the territory and governance, the "guarantorship" question, and the military bases on the island.

Previously, Turkey's EU membership bid was the main rationale behind its Cyprus initiative, as Cyprus has been one of the major impediments in the accession process. Today, however, the main motivation is energy. In other words: The gas and oil reserves that were recently discovered in the waters off of Cyprus and Israel. The "Aphrodite" gas field - off the coast of southern Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean - is estimated to have 200 billion cubic meters of gas and 3.7 billion barrels of oil. Similarly, great oil reserves have been discovered in the Tamar and Leviathan fields off the coast of Israel.

The only viable option to export this gas is to transport it to Europe via an underwater gas pipeline through Turkey, which requires a compromise between Turkey, Cyprus and Israel. It is exactly this energy potential that has increased the will for a solution on the two sides on the island, Turkey, Greece and the West. A solution will also make Turkey a significant energy hub. This energy potential has also created a strong impetus for normalization between Turkey and Israel. 

The economic crisis is another factor...