The Tel Aviv-Moscow route for Turkey

U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to limit the provision of visas to the citizens of seven Muslim countries is a strategic step.

Trump is open and frank about his criticism toward the European Union and particularly Germany's refugee policies. Indirectly, his words target Turkey's "open-door policy" toward Syrians. And unlike the Barack Obama administration, Trump does not feel the need to show sympathy or share the burden. He, as a pragmatic businessman, feels getting the Saudis involved financially to share the burden makes more sense. And he may be right to a great extent.

Trump's position to get the Gulf countries involved in the process is a result-oriented approach. His idea of "secure zones" may be raw at this point, but it looks like it has been somewhat discussed with the forces on the ground. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cleared the path for that discussion by saying that it could only happen if Syrian agrees. We do see the signs that this issue has, in fact, been discussed at some level between Moscow and Washington.

The Trump administration's approach toward the region will be shaped by two major actors and a major adversary. Jordan and Israel will be the key players and Russia will be the enabler of the new Syria. It looks like Ankara will be sitting on the bench, at least in the first quarter of the game. Turkey's first official contact with the Trump administration (except for the obvious phone call that will happen) will probably be a visit by Secretary of Defense Gen. James Mattis. Mattis recently had a phone conversation with Germany's defense minister reaffirming the U.S.' commitment to NATO, and his initial trips abroad are focused on Asia.

 Nonetheless, after the meltdown in the State Department...