Turkey's foreign policy based on real estate value
Ankara has historically tended to side with the United States whenever relations with the European Union have deteriorated.
Of course, there were times when we observed the opposite. For instance, Turkish-American relations took a nosedive when Turkey's parliament turned down a resolution in 2003 that would have allowed U.S. soldiers to use Turkish territory to open another front in the Iraq War. Europeans, in contrast, considered that vote a victory for democracy, resulting in Ankara and Brussels growing closer together. Back then, Turkey was being presented as a model in the region.
Over time, however, these patterns have lost their significance. Today, Turkey has troubled relations with both the EU and the U.S.
However, amid the recent spat with Europe neither Ankara nor Brussels has the luxury to turn their back on the other, given their mutual political and economic interests. Therefore, when populist pressures wane after various upcoming elections, Turkey-EU relations will certainly be redefined on different terms.
Turkey-U.S. ties are another matter entirely. The Ankara government turned out to be wrong in assuming that the problems inherited from the Obama administration would be easily solved once President Donald Trump took office.
Despite reactions from Ankara, Washington has resolved to cooperate with the Democratic Union Party (PYD) against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria. And just before U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrived in Ankara last week, the Turkish government declared that the Euphrates Shield Operation, which had actually already reached its limits on the ground, had ended.
Meanwhile, Ankara's belated and relatively mild response to the Kurdistan Regional...