Romania's GDP in Q2 2018 up 1.4pct compared to Q1

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q2 of 2018 is higher by 1.4 percent compared to Q1 and when compared to the similar period of 2017 it recorded an increase by 4.1 percent as gross series, and by 4.2 percent as seasonally adjusted series, according to a release of the National Institute of Statistics (INS) sent to AGERPRES on Friday.

In the first half of 2018 against the same period of 2017, the GDP went up 4.0 percent as gross series and 4.2 percent as seasonally adjusted.

According to the INS, the Gross Domestic Product - seasonally adjusted data - estimated for Q2 of 2018 was 232.583 billion lei current prices, increasing - in real terms - by 1.4 percent versus Q1 of 2018, and by 4.2 percent compared to Q2 of 2017. The GDP estimated for the first semester of 2018 was 458.979 billion lei current prices, rising - in real terms - by 4.2 percent compared to the first half of 2017.

The GDP as gross series, estimated for Q2 of 2018 stood at 218.775 billion lei current prices, increasing - in real terms - by 4.1 percent from Q2 of 2017.

The estimated GDP for the first semester of 2018 was 399.289 billion lei current prices, increasing - in real terms - by 4.0 percent compared to the first semester of 2017.

According to the INS, in the GDP growth in the first half of 2018 compared to the first semester of 2017 there were contributions of almost all branches of the economy, with the most important positive contributions being recorded in the following branches: industry (+ 1.0 percent), with a share of 23.6 percent to the GDP formation and whose volume of activity increased by 4.3 percent; the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; transport and storage; hotels and restaurants (+ 0.8 percent), with a 20.4 percent share in the GDP formation and whose activity volume increased by 3.8 percent.

Net taxes on product, with a weight of 9.9 percent to the GDP formation, contributed + 0.9 percent to GDP growth, with their volume increasing by 9.3 percent.

In terms of the GDP usage, the increase was mainly due to household final consumption expenditure, which increased by 5.5 percent, thus contributing 3.4 percent to the GDP growth.

A negative contribution to the GDP growth was owed to net exports (-1.6 percent), due to the 6.5 percent increase in exports of goods and services, correlated with a higher increase in the volume of goods and services imports, of 9.6 percent.

In the spring economic forecast released in early May, the European Commission (EC) maintained estimates regarding the increase of Romania's economy in 2018 to 4.5 percent and for 2019 an increase of 3.9 percent is expected.

The World Bank (WB) recently announced that Romania's economy will register an increase of 5.1 percent in 2018, but warned that this growth is outpacing. A 5 percent growth is also foreseen by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) estimates an increase of 4.6 percent in 2018 and 4.2 percent in 2019.

However, on Thursday, September 6, resident representative of the IMF in Romania Alejandro Hajdenberg announced at the "2018 Investor Days 2018" conference that the International Monetary Fund is considering modifying the economic growth forecast for Romania this year from 5.1 percent to 4-4.5 percent.

He underscored that the long-term growth projection of 3-3.5 percent will be maintained.

The National Prognosis Commission indicates a 6.1 percent increase of the GDP in 2018, followed by increases of 5.7 percent in 2019, 2020 and 5 percent in 2021.

In 2017, Romania's economy recorded an advance of 6.9 percent compared to the previous year, it advanced 4.8 percent in 2016, the highest rate since 2008, and 3.9 percent in 2015. AGERPRES (RO - author: George Banciulea, editor: Oana Tilica; EN - author: Rodica State, editor: Adina Panaitescu)