Battle of the budget forecasts has been postponed until June

The Eurogroup has postponed the "battle of forecasts" on the Greek budget until after the European elections. On June 5, the report of the European Commission on the third post-bailout assessment will reflect its own estimate of the Greek primary surplus (and the recent voting of measures for 2019). However, the big battle will take place this fall.

The Greek side has already revealed its hand on the matter: It anticipates a primary surplus of 4.1 percent of gross domestic product this year as its baseline scenario, which does not include the measures voted, and a primary surplus marginally above the 3.5 percent target factoring in the handouts to pensioners and the value-added tax rate cuts.

The government has moved the goalposts for this year based mainly on the fact that last year's primary surplus came to 4.29 percent, against an original forecast for 3.8 percent...

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