How Europe’s Populists Lost the EU Game of Thrones

True, populist MEPs from Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) Party and Hungary's Fidesz were firmly opposed to Frans Timmermans, a Dutch socialist who has loudly condemned both parties over their violations of EU norms and the rule of law.

But nor did they want to strengthen French President Emmanuel Macron, who supported von der Leyen. The optimal outcome for Poland's de facto ruler, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was von der Leyen's confirmation by the smallest possible majority.

Populist MEPs thus appear to have been instructed to say they were voting for her without actually doing so.

Had von der Leyen lost, it would have been ample payback to the rejection of the PiS candidate for deputy speaker of the European Parliament and former Prime Minister Beata Szydlo's two failed bids to chair the Parliament's Employment Committee.

Moreover, this was around the same time that Krzysztof Szczerski, also backed by PiS, lost his bid to become Deputy Secretary General of NATO.

But, because von der Leyen made it through, the populists are boasting that she owes her job to them, as though they have some kind of tacit deal with the former German defense minister.

That seems highly dubious, given that a deal between von der Leyen and PiS would have cost her the support of the socialists and liberals. But now that the populists have cast a shadow over her leadership, it is important to understand what they may want from her.

Newly elected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Photo: EPA-EFE/CLEMENS BILAN

The first thing to recognise is that Central and Eastern Europe's populists — now including the Czech government — would prefer to pursue intergovernmental negotiations than to work...