Bosnia Pulls Back from the Brink, for Now

They warn that years of political divisions, zero-sum games, distrust and poor communication between local leaders, as well as growing tensions among key regional and global actors, have left Bosnia a ticking time-bomb that could go off at any moment, leading to the collapse of the remaining joint institutions or even the breakup of the country.

Which way Bosnia will go in the coming days and weeks will very much depend on developments within the two main actors in this crisis - the main Bosniak and Serb parties, the Party of Democratic Action, SDA, and Dodik's SNSD.

The SDA is holding its party congress on September 14, which is expected to re-install Bakir Izetbegovic as party leader, while the SNSD main board will meet four days later to elect new deputy presidents and decide its next steps in the current crisis.

After these two events, Bosnian political observers expect the SDA to maintain its relatively moderate and restrained position in eventual negotiations with Dodik's SNSD and the main Croat party, the Croat Democratic Union, HDZ.

However, at least a little more turmoil can be expected from the SNSD side, where internal animosities and struggles among several key party members - ongoing behind the scenes for some time - could easily spill out into the open and once again radicalise Dodik's approach to the current crisis.

Agreement for disagreement

Bosniak Member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Bakir Izetbegovic. Photo: EPA-EFE/TATYANA ZENKOVICH / POOL

The current drama stems from a controversial agreement signed on August 5 by the Bosniak, Bosnian Croat and Serb leaders - Bakir Izetbegovic, Dragan Covic and Milorad Dodik - to supposedly end Bosnia's post-election political...