Russia Pulls Transnistria Strings, with Eye on Ukraine

Indeed, Transnistria is precisely the model Russia has in mind, experts say - the rebel region, propped up by Russian political and military might, is increasingly seen as the forerunner for frozen conflicts in what Russia sees as its post-Soviet 'sphere of influence'.

Just as Russia has promoted the idea of Moldova becoming a federal state, giving pro-Russian Transnistria an effective veto over the country's Western integration, it has hinted at a similar solution for Ukraine.

"Moldova became a testing ground for the federalisation scenarios, which Russian may intend to apply also for Ukraine as well," said Chisinau-based political expert Mihai Isac.

'Cannon fodder'

The leader of the Transnistrian region of Moldova, Vadim Krasnoselski (L) shakes hands with the President of Moldova Igor Dodon (R) during a meeting in Condrita village, at presidential residence, 36 kilometres West from Chisinau, Moldova, September 6, 2018. Photo: Doru Dumitru

Ukraine, its Western backers and Russia have been discussing for several years the possibility of deploying United Nations peacekeepers to eastern Ukraine, where a Russian-fomented rebellion escalated in 2014 escalated into a war that has killed more than 13,000 people and is now locked in a fragile stalemate.

They remain at odds over the scope, makeup and mandate of such a force.

Russia's continued military presence in Transnistria, and the influence this affords Moscow over Chisinau, offers a cautionary tale for Ukraine, experts say.

Recently, Russia has revived a 2003 plan called the Kozak Memorandum, which calls for an asymmetrical federal Moldovan state, with Transnistria and the autonomous, pro-Russian region of Gagauzia granted equal say in deciding...