The West’s Declining Relevance has Cast the Balkans Adrift

Already in December 2016, I noted, the Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump as US president signified the end of Euro-Atlantic project as it had existed in the Western Balkans. The subsequent three years have borne out the truth of this assessment.

Flags fly outside parliament event at 10 Downing Street in London, Britain. Photo: EPA-EFE/ANDY RAIN

The chaos of post-2016 domestic politics in the UK and US has decimated the foreign policy capacities of both London and Washington. What remains of their foreign policy communities has managed only to execute a handful of important regional stopgap measures, and the occasional photo-op, in which we might include Ambassador Grenell's recent forays.

But such initiatives are typified by lack of detail, and by the lack of any coherent, long-term policy vision that could string them together into an actual political program.

Grenell's apparent breakthrough with Belgrade and Prishtina ironically shows how much the region still longs for genuine US leadership - as I previously argued with the Albright Stonebridge Group's Molly Montgomery. But whether the Trump administration - characterized as it is by scandals and incompetence - can capitalize on such favorable local conditions is doubtful.

The British, meanwhile, appear keen to demonstrate their relevance as a regional power precisely because of their departure from the EU. And in truth, the UK has been punching above its weight for decades. It will likely continue to do so, mostly on account of its close relationship with the US, its robust economy, and its likewise vigorous military and intelligence footprint - especially in comparison to most of its EU counterparts.

But how can Britain credibly argue for EU...