Next two months critical; we need to flatten the curve

The next two months will be critical. We will remember them for the rest of our lives. I would like to offer a few pieces of information, under the burden of my professional capacity as a statistician who is working in crisis modelling and simulation, and the additional burden of the dearth of data that we have for this new virus.

Our best current estimate of the mortality rate of Covid-19 is around 1 percent, with a range of 0.5 percent-2%. This differs from the so-called snapshot CFR which is obtained by dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases, and which varies in the range of 2%-5% or more per region. The snapshot CFR is factually accurate, but not very predictive, so let's run with 1% as a median expectation.
This is still at least 20 times worse than the flu. The belief that "the flu kills more people every year" will soon be proven wrong....

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