Economists say 2020 recession ‘inevitable’

Foreign analysts appear more pessimistic than the Bank of Greece's baseline scenario for 0 percent growth this year due to the coronavirus epidemic, saying a recession appears inevitable, especially in the first half of the year, mainly due to tourism. Shrinking forecasts range between 1 and 15 percent for 2020, depending also on measures yet to be taken, though the rebound once normalcy returns should be considerable.

"Greece already contracted 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 on a quarterly basis and we suspect it is heading for a recession as soon as Q1 this year. It is one of the more exposed economies to this crisis," Melanie Debono, economist Capital Economics, tells Kathimerini. "The numbers are anyone's guess at this point but we forecast the economy to shrink 3.5 percent q/q in Q1 and perhaps 12 percent in Q2. The subsequent rebound will be slightly slower...