Lessons to learn from the crisis: Op-ed

With the number of cases of coronavirus spreading in multiple countries around the globe, researchers at the Imperial College in London have made a sobering prediction that the death toll might soar into critically high numbers if social distancing and other mitigation measures fail.

Viruses that have grave consequences for the world also give rise to great political, social and economic transformations. It is hard at the moment to forecast the kind of future the current world is going to evolve toward. However, it is quite discernible that nothing is going to be - or can be - as it used to be. We are embarking upon a new era in which sweeping changes are likely in the global economic, political and social order.

First, there's the economic cost: According to Goldman Sachs' latest forecast, China's gross domestic product will decline 9 percent during the first quarter - a loss of more than 1 trillion dollars in production and income and an unprecedented reversal for modern China. The investment bank is also predicting a 5 percent decline in U.S. GDP during the second quarter, when the pandemic effects hit hard. That would also represent a loss of over 1 trillion dollars in output. The European Union, meanwhile, has also pledged to invest 25 billion euro ($27.86 billion) to address the coronavirus impact. However, COVID-19 is not generating a global recession, it is simply accelerating it. It is evident that the world economy was already fragile, sustained by financial bubbles and huge consumer debt.

And then there's globalization. Could the coronavirus pandemic even be the nail in the coffin for the current era of globalization? The outbreak has been a gift to nativist nationalists and protectionists, and it is likely to have a long-term...

Continue reading on: