Trump’s Political Survival Will Shape the Western Balkans

When it comes to the US, meanwhile, one thing seems clear: Donald Trump's chances of re-election as President hang on his ability to "unite the nation" in its response to the pandemic.

A challenge of such a magnitude provides "ample opportunity to take up the mantle of national leader and appear presidential". [Zachary Wolf reporting for CNN]

Destined to become a coronavirus hotspot:

People wait in line to be tested for COVID19 at the Gotham Health Center in the Bronx, New York, USA, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE/JUSTIN LANE

This challenge is as real as it gets. Due to the exponential spread of the virus, the US has now surpassed all other countries in terms of the numbers of those infected.

In characteristic fashion, Trump at first appeared overly optimistic when discussing possible therapies: remember his tweets about the effect of chloroquine? At one point, he predicted a return to "normal life" by Easter, which falls on April 12 - contrary to experts' advice about the need to "flatten the curve" of infection first.

It wasn't only Trump's personality that was behind such unwarranted optimism. His re-election ticket was the economy. By the time of the coronavirus outbreak, US unemployment was at a record low of 3.5 per cent. Growth in 2019 was 2.3 per cent, a good figure for a developed country.

Faced with choosing between "jobs and lives", however preposterous that sounds, the administration was at first hesitant. Add to this the decentralized nature of governance in America, where decisions on mandatory quarantine are made by state governors. [As of April 5, eight - all Republican - governors were still holding out.]

On 28 February, Trump called the pandemic the "Democrats' new hoax", one day before...

Continue reading on: