Two scenarios on recession in 2020

The government will include two scenarios on the economic contraction projected for this year in the Stability Program for 2020-21 to be submitted to the European Commission on Thursday in the context of the European Semester.

The baseline scenario will provide for a V-shaped recovery, estimating that the economy will contract by 4.7 percent this year and rebound by 5 percent in 2021, while the adverse scenario will take this year's contraction to 8-9 percent, according to sources.

Nevertheless, there will be a single fiscal scenario in the plan providing for a primary deficit of 2.5-3.5 percent of GDP according to the statistical rules applying to all eurozone member-states - that are different to those used for the Greek Stability Program.

Finance Ministry sources say that after the application of the adjustments the Eurogroup has allowed due to the...