'Optimistic' Finance Ministry scenario sees recession at 4.7 pct

The Finance Ministry's estimates about the impact of the coronavirus on the Greek economy this year are at the optimistic end of the range of projections expressed to date and near those of the Bank of Greece, according to the Stability Program Athens submitted to the European Commission last Thursday.

The ministry's baseline scenario provides for a recession of 4.7 percent, but there is also an adverse scenario for a 7.9 percent contraction. Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras made respective forecasts of 4 percent and 8 percent. Notably, both scenarios provide for a revival in 2021 that will offset all of this year's losses, with a 5.1 to 8 percent rebound.

Other authorities, such as the International Monetary Fund, have a baseline scenario for a 10 percent recession, but the ministry does not agree, and notes that without the emergency measures the economy...

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