BIRN Fact-check: Can Serbia Really be so Proud of its Economic Growth?

On May 1, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic had a message for Serbs fearful for their future finances in the era of COVID-19.

"I am absolutely sure," he told a news conference, "that we will be the No. 1 country on the whole European continent this year in terms of growth rate," and "one of the best in the whole world."

Finance Minister Sinisa Mali echoed his party leader five days later, when he said Serbia should "get used to being the best in Europe."

"Everything is calculated according to the same standards and I ask everyone who spreads misinformation to stop lying to these people," Mali said.

Serbian Finance Minister Sinisa Mali

Indeed, according to an analysis published in April by the International Monetary Fund, Serbia's economy will suffer less than most from the lockdowns imposed across Europe and much of the world to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Serbia's gross domestic product, GDP, is forecast to contract this year by three per cent, compared to seven per cent in Germany, 7.2 per cent in France and 9.1 per cent in Italy, the original epicentre of the outbreak in Europe following its spread from China.

The European Commission - the executive arm of the European Union - sees Serbia's output contracting four per cent, considerably less than the 7.5 per cent it predicts for the EU as a bloc.

But does this really mean Serbia is "the best in Europe" and among the best in the world, as the country's ruling Progressive Party would have Serbs believe as they head to the polls in a parliamentary election next month?

A BIRN fact-check suggests not.

The fact the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns have had less of an impact on the Serbian economy speaks more to the stage of Serbian...