The Polish Opposition’s Last Chance

The resulting public confusion would have guaranteed Duda victory in the first round. But the election did not take place on May 10, owing to a revolt by Agreement, a small party whose leader, Jarosław Gowin, had hitherto been loyal to Kaczyński. PiS has since been forced to postpone the election, but Duda still has a good - albeit worsening - chance of securing a second term, regardless of the date.

Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, the previous candidate from the largest opposition party, Civic Platform (PO), had a strong start in February, but polled increasingly poorly over the course of the pandemic. Owing to PO's indecisiveness on whether to boycott the May 10 vote, her support fell from about 30% to as low as 2-3%, and she has since dropped out of the contest.

There is now a potential split forming between the opposition's left and a new centre-right grouping around Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the popular leader of the Polish People's Party (PSL), who is reshaping a once-obsolete outfit into a modern Christian Democratic force. Kosiniak-Kamysz could be joined by Szymon Hołownia, an independent candidate with liberal-Catholic views, a somewhat populist style, and as a former television personality, name recognition. A master of social media and grassroots fundraising, Hołownia has attracted experts from across the political spectrum to his staff.

Having benefited from PO's flailing response to the pandemic and election crisis, Kosiniak-Kamysz and Hołownia are weighing whether to launch a new political grouping (potentially together with Gowin's party) to lead the opposition. Lacking a worthy successor to its previous leader Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister and European Council president, PO is not popular even among its own voters, many...