Sending out clear signals in a silent manner

In the next three months we must try to avoid a Greek-Turkish "incident." No one can predict what sort of incident that might be, unless it is preempted by some major event. Turkey tends to make good on its public statements, which means we should expect to see Turkish exploratory drilling in an area close to Crete or Kastellorizo by September.

Several Greek analysts thought Ankara would first test the waters by carrying out a drill in a more distant area that would not be seen as such a provocation by Greece. This however appears to be the moment of truth for Ankara. It is no longer willing to rely on informal confidential channels of communication; no one is picking up the phone across the Aegean. The aim is a full-fledged negotiation, before or after a crisis.

Greece's partners are naturally worried. They are sending signals on all levels. They want to make sure...