Best scenario for economy is still bleak

The government faces the daunting task of trying to prop up the economy in December. Given the likelihood of the lockdown being extended beyond the end of November, the effort will focus on the second half of the last month of the year.

Success will mean that the economy will shrink "just" 10.5% in 2020, bringing Greece's gross domestic product back to 2002 levels. However, to achieve even this bleak result, December earnings cannot afford to drop far below the 2019 level of 30 billion euros. It has already been accepted that this year's figure will be €6-8 billion lower, resulting in a total drop in earnings of between €50-52 billion for the year.

Authorities are focusing on commerce, both wholesale and retail. Last year, this sector had €11 billion in earnings, plus an estimated €2-3 billion that were not documented in receipts. A decline of 20% in earnings will...