What to expect in the new year

Greek-Turkish relations were precarious in 2020 and the fact that an "accident" or military engagement was avoided is important. The new year may bring big developments in Greek-Turkish relations but also on the Cyprus issue.

The two countries appear to be on course to start exploratory contacts in January. No one can predict whether they will move forward or collapse. There is a great deal of accumulated mistrust and a lot of factors that can scupper the talks at any moment. The Turkey of 2021 is not the Turkey of 2004, nor even of 2015. It has an entirely different view of itself. It sees itself as a rising great power in a period of change and as the United States retreats, and has become much more aggressive.

Ankara insists on an extremely broad agenda. Unlike in the past, there is more than one decision-making center today, with a constant tug-of-war taking place...