Biden-Erdogan Meeting Suggests No Quick Fixes in U.S.-Turkish Relations

On the Turkish end, the NATO summit could not have come at a worse time.

Ankara drew the ire of its allies in late May for using its veto power to water down the alliance's official condemnation of Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko, who illegally forced down a passenger plane to arrest Roman Protasevich, a dissident journalist on board. This incident followed earlier episodes of the Turkish government playing a spoiler role within NATO to soften rhetoric and action against Russian aggression targeting members of the alliance.

For a Turkey that has long leveraged its geostrategic location in NATO's southeastern flank, this was a low point in its standing in the eyes not only of the United States but also of the other 28 member states.

Erdogan's strategy

US President Joe Biden (R) greets Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a plenary session at a NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, 14 June 2021. Photo: EPA-EFE/OLIVIER MATTHYS / POOL

Erdogan adopted a tough posture domestically in the run-up to his meeting with Biden.

He criticised the US president on Turkey's state broadcaster for recognising the Armenian genocide, warning that, "those who corner the Republic of Turkey will lose a precious friend."

But once in Brussels, the Turkish president chose to keep things cordial. Hoping to return to the personalised and transactional bilateral relations that characterised the Trump presidency, Erdogan preferred a one-on-one meeting without the presence of any diplomats or note-takers from either side, with the exception of an unofficial translator. This approach drew criticism from the Turkish opposition for Erdogan's breach of state conventions and diplomatic protocol.

Erdogan...