How covid-19 strain D affects the forecasts for the Greek economy

The potential threat of the "D" mutation casts a shadow of uncertainty over the Greek economy, although the Ministry of Finance does not appear pessimistic at the moment, maintaining the forecasts for the economy and the course of tourism. The vaccine weapon has activated the government to provide acceleration incentives for the immunization wall, in order to protect citizens, but also to shield expectations for this year's recovery.

The Ministry of Finance has budgeted a conservative number for this year's revenues that reach 40-45% of those in 2019 - and so the scenario for a recovery in 2021 close to 4% appears realistic at the moment. According to competent officials, if in the end turnover is better and this percentage rises ten points, close to 55%, it automatically has a positive effect on the economy. This means that tourism in 2019 was about 10% of GDP, so if tourism goes better by ten points automatically it contributes one unit to GDP.

However, the onset of the mutation is causing shocks to the revenue targets for 2021, and it seems that the estimates for a target of 50% of the turnover in 2019 are moving away, while there are concerns for undermining the 40% threshold.

According to the report on the Monetary Policy of the Bank of Greece, the economic activity in the second half of 2021 is expected to be supported by the start of the implementation of the projects of the National Recovery and Sustainability Plan and by the partial return of receipts, close to 40%, compared to those of 2019. The full recovery will come after two years, while, as it is emphasized, despite the fact that the vaccination program is progressing, the spread of mutations is a source of uncertainty and so any worsening of the pandemic could lead to a sluggish...