Bulgaria Will See Another Peak of Covid-19 Wave by End-September

We are currently at the peak of the COVID-19 spread in Bulgaria. Due to a number of factors, a new peak of the current wave can be expected soon, mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov told BNT breakfast show "The Day Begins" on September 13.

He explained that one of the reasons for the high incidenec rate is the fact that many people do not register. According to him, there are people with symptoms who are infected but do not register as such. The other factors are the weather conditions, which are deteriorating, as well as the people who are returning to the big cities after a summer vacation.

Vitanov also said that the start of the new school year is also a factor for the upcoming peak in the country.

"An army of 700,000 students and 70,000 teachers will be fully operational in two days. Here are some factors that suggest that once this peak passes and after some easing of the situation, a new peak can be expected," he added.

According to him, the imposition of measures can prevent this from happening.

"Some reduction in tension is expected, but then all the listed factors start to work and only restrictive measures can stop them," Vitanov added.

According to him, during the previous three waves, the measures have always worked because they were introduced at the right time.

Vitanov explained that the death rate curve goes upwsards with a certain delay and by the end of September the mortality will be high. Then the peak values ​​are expected to go down slightly until the secondary peak comes, he added.

 

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