Next Bulgarian Parliament May Be Even More Fragmented - Poll

n the run-up to the November 14 snap parliamentary elections, held hand-in-hand with presidential elections, a likelihood emerges for an even more pronounced fragmentation of the political space and a Parliament with seven parties, according to the latest opinion poll which was financed and implemented jointly by the commercial bTV and the Market Links polling agency. The survey was conducted among 1,076 adults in September 14-20, in a face-to-face interview and online polling.
If elections were held now, the GERB-UDF coalition will have a much bigger headway than the formations coming after it, and will likely be the categorical winner. Five parties are likely to win between 10 and 15 per cent, which suggests fierce election campaigning. Four of these parties: There is Such a People, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, Democratic Bulgaria, and Continue the Change, have the potential of emerging as the second-biggest formation in the new Parliament.
Continue the Change draws votes from most of the parties represented in the previous 46th National Assembly with the exception of the Movements for Rights and Freedoms, and also attracts votes from some of the people who did not go to the polls at the last elections.
Although with good mobilization of voters, Rise UP BG! Here We Come! has lost support and is currently in the risky area of the four per cent threshold for entry in Parliament.
The Vazrazhdane [Revival] party too is close to four per cent.
The 2-in-1 elections seem a factor for an increase in people's intention to vote, at the background of an overall dissatisfaction with the ongoing political crisis. The higher turnout works in favour of the parties with lower voter mobilization and of formations who attract the so-called protest votes.