China, Not Russia, is the Greater Threat to Kosovo

Russia and China work in tandem. Premier Xi Jinping and Putin are united through their sense of historic humiliation. They oppose the integration of Western Balkan countries into Euro-Atlantic institutions. Serbian President Aleksander Vucic is a malleable figurehead eager to do their bidding.

China has surpassed Russia as the leading authoritarian influence in the region. It has also replaced Russia as Serbia's great backer. While Russia seeks to foster chaos and instability, China is systematically taking steps to integrate and control the economies of Balkan countries.

Chinese debt diplomacy

People visit Serbian booth at the 3rd China International Import Expo in Shanghai. Photo: EPA-EFE/ALEX PLAVEVSKI

Russia's influence is diminishing not only in Kosovo, but throughout the region. Montenegro joined NATO in 2017 over Russia's objections, followed by North Macedonia. Romania blocked Russian arms shipment to Serbia in July 2019. The following year, Serbia cancelled its participation in "Slavic Brotherhood" military exercises with Russia and Belarus.

Serbia and China, on the other hand, have found common ground through China's Belt and Road Initiative, BRI. Its financing saddles countries with debt and fuels corruption. China benefits by capturing resources needed for its economic growth. Montenegro is especially vulnerable to China's ravenous drive to control ports and infrastructure.

Financing comes at a cost. BRI leaves countries beholden to Beijing's political agenda. Serbia supports China's crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong, its human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and its tough stance towards Taiwan.

As cooperation between Serbia and Russia has advanced, security cooperation between Russia and Serbia has...