Forget Polexit – the EU Must Defend the CJEU

If one takes the Polish constitutional court's decision at face value, the government has only three options, only one of which is realistic.

Warsaw could work towards a change of the EU treaty to make it compatible with the Polish constitution (good luck with that!). It could change the Polish constitution to make it compatible with the EU treaty (there is no majority for that). Or it could leave the EU. This is perfectly feasible - a simple majority vote in the lower house, or Sejm, could take place any time. The Polexit scenario is, thus, the one which terrifies pro-Europeans in Poland and beyond its borders. Indeed, with Poland following the British example, the disintegration of the EU would be halfway done.

However, the real battle will be over the fourth option, which would be much more devastating for the EU than any further 'exit' of a member state: the demolition of the EU's legal order from within.

To put it simply: the EU cannot function without the "efficient legal protection" for companies and citizens (its indispensable part is the independence of judges from the executive power) enshrined in Article 19 of the Treaty on European Union. And there must be an ultimate arbiter - the CJEU - capable of assessing whether this fundamental principle is respected by and in the EU member states.

It is this key responsibility of the CJEU that the Polish authorities vehemently attack. They want Poland to remain part of an EU which allows its member states to shape their judicial systems as they see fit - also with judges facing disciplinary proceedings for how they ruled and being suspended for political reasons. Tolerating this would mark the end of the EU as we know it. And ultimately, the end of the EU altogether.

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