European Commission – Growth of 8.5% in 2021 and 4.9% this year for Greece
Real GDP in Greece grew by 2.7% (quarter-on-quarter) in 2021-Q3, reflecting strong export performance and a significant contribution from private consumption. The notable recovery in tourist inflows over the summer
helped the economy to reclaim a significant part of the previous losses due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, while the industrial sector has rebounded strongly. The recent emergence of the Omicron
variant and the related tightening of containment measures are expected to have weighed on growth in the last quarter of 2021, but its impact is projected to largely fade out during the first quarter of 2022. Overall, real GDP
is expected to have grown 8.5% in 2021.
Growth in 2022 is forecast to be driven by investment, supported by the impetus from the Recovery and Resilience Plan. As consumer spending returns to its pre-pandemic levels, private consumption is also expected to support growth. In addition, the external environment is forecast to remain supportive. Tourism in particular is expected to continue recovering its previous losses, until it fully returns to its pre-pandemic levels by the end of the forecast horizon. Overall, real GDP is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2022 and ease to 3.5% in 2023.
Driven primarily by energy prices, consumer price inflation increased in the last quarter of 2021. Electricity and fuel prices are set to peak during the first quarter of 2022 and ease later in the year. High energy costs are expected to subsequently pass-through to the remaining components of the consumption basket. Headline inflation is forecast at 3.1% in 2022 and 1.1% in 2023. Wage pressures have so far remained limited due to the still large slack in the labour market. The authorities announced an increase in the...
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