13th evaluation: Positive conclusion – Alarm over uncertainty for inflation

The Commission emphasizes the positive prospects of the economy in its report on the conclusion of the 13th evaluation, while it sees the rise in energy prices as a source of uncertainty. It emphasizes, among other things, that Greece has recovered quickly from the pandemic and the prospects remain strong, although they are subject to high uncertainty. Currently, the economy is expected to record GDP growth of 8.5% in 2021, due to domestic demand and the better-than-expected tourist season.

The return to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity had already been achieved in the third quarter of 2021. The outlook for 2022 remains strong, supported by fiscal and monetary policy and the strong impetus from the Recovery and Sustainability Plan. However, the spread of the new Omicron variant is likely to weigh on growth in the last quarter of 2021, but this impact is expected to weaken significantly in the first quarter of 2022.

"Energy" uncertainty

Recent price developments in the global energy market, and in particular in the price of electricity, have led to rising consumer prices and are an additional source of uncertainty for the economy as a whole. While most of the emergency support measures were phased out in 2021, as planned, the government responded quickly to the outbreak of the new coronavirus variant and to higher-than-expected inflation with new targeted support.

The general government deficit is expected to decrease significantly in 2022 compared to the previous year. According to the report, the data foretell positive news for the fiscal result of 2021. It is recalled that the Commission's autumn forecast forecast a primary deficit of 7.6% of GDP for 2021 and 1.2% of GDP for 2022 and 1.5 % in 2023.

Labor market...