Polls Point to 4th Consecutive Victory for Hungary’s Prime Minister

Government-allied pollsters regularly predict a comfortable 5-7 per cent lead for the government over the united opposition. Yet op-eds in the many government-loyal media outlets reveal proper anguish, if not sometimes even outright panic, in the Fidesz ranks.

Independent pollster Zavecz found this week only a 3 per cent lead for the government, which is within the margin of error. It appears the opposition is closing the gap on the government in the last week of the campaign, making the April 3 election the closest and most exciting in Hungary's democratic history.

"It will be tight," predicts Andrea Szabo, senior research fellow at the Institute for Political Science, adding that ultimately it could come down to a case of the opposition losing the election rather than Fidesz actually winning it.

President of the European People's Party and leader of Poland's opposition party Civic Platform (PO) Donald Tusk (L) and prime ministerial candidate of the united opposition Peter Marki-Zay shake hands during a rally on the Danube embankment in Buda near the Technical University in Budapest, Hungary, 15 March 2022. EPA-EFE/Zsolt Szigetvary Losing the 'Big Mo'

Szabo and many other analysts believe the united opposition - a rainbow coalition of leftist, liberal, green, centrist and former extreme right parties - had a singular chance at the outset of the campaign to forge a path to victory, but lost momentum soon after the primaries they staged last October to find a single prime ministerial candidate to run against Orban.

Peter Marki-Zay, a hitherto little-known conservative mayor - ironically, sharing many of Fidesz's values - emerged as the surprise winner in those primaries. A breath of fresh air, Marki-Zay raised...