Greek economy 2023: Durable recovery but also volatile factors

The new year starts from a favorable starting point, with the Greek economy having shown remarkable resistance to two consecutive, particularly serious, international disturbances - the pandemic and the energy crisis, starting with the war in Ukraine -, which were also accompanied by the most severe inflationary escalation in 40 years. With the exception of the pandemic, which is in remission, the remaining factors continue to be foci of concern and persistent challenges. However, according to data so far, a significant part of the aforementioned risks have already been discounted by mid-2022.

The foci of uncertainty for 2023 are located in the persistence of energy challenges and the additional costs of the required energy transition, the intensity of the Eurozone economic slowdown and the adaptation of the international and domestic economy to an environment of higher interest rates and more prolonged, than initially estimated, inflationary pressures. Despite justified fears, the response of the European economy as a whole has so far been better than expected, despite delays in critical decisions in the energy field - and with the positive assistance of circumstantial factors (mild weather conditions) - resulting in immediate risks seem more manageable now, although there are several difficult months ahead of us. However, the geopolitical conditions remain unfavorable and unpredictable, with undefined global ramifications in case of a new escalation in Ukraine, but also growing regional threats in our neighborhood, and more widely, amid unprecedented tensions, aggression and revisionism.

After the collapse of activity due to the pandemic, the Greek economy has pleasantly surprised with its dynamics. Average annual GDP growth is estimated to have...

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