2022 to 2023: Europe trapped in contradictory geopolitical shifts

Changes come about in different ways. Gradually, over the long term. Or suddenly, with "events, dear boy, events," whose proportions we sometimes define as "historic." Or changes happen through the regular back and forth of real life, or by oscillations, sometimes in multi-decade cycles. Changes occur visibly or imperceptibly, sometimes going in opposite directions. Entering the new year 2023 offers an opportunity to take stock of the evolving shifts in Europe and its surroundings.

The war in Ukraine is causing layers to shift in opposite directions for Europe. The surface layers have moved toward strengthening Europe: swift EU reaction, rapid energy decoupling from Russia, copious financial and military aid to Ukraine, unity of Europe and the West in nine rounds of unprecedented sanctions, a decisive and principled stance by a rules-based democratic Europe against the...