The Ukraine war and the East Med

The war in Ukraine is a storm raging in Europe's east. But its consequences will be felt in the south. The Eastern Mediterranean is likely to be affected in a variety of ways, with particular implications for Greece and its neighbors. Russia's presence and actions are one element in this equation. The effects of the war on the global order and the aspirations of regional powers are another. To these must be added a general rise in insecurity of all kinds, alongside new ideological cleavages.

Even prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia had returned to the Mediterranean. Moscow's annexation of Crimea - and arguably its current war in Ukraine - are linked to Russia's strategic aspirations looking south. Control of Crimea and dominance of the strategic environment in the Black Sea would be essential to Russia's ability to project naval power into the Mediterranean. The fact that...