Survey: DPS and "Vazrazhdane" will Compete for the Third Place in Bulgaria's Elections

If the elections in Bulgaria were in early March, the result would probably be as follows: "We Continue the Change" - "Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) and GERB-SDS would have almost identical support with 27.2% and 26.6%, The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) and "Vazrazhdane" are the other pair with similar results and would fight for third place, with 13.4% and 12.3% respectively. With 7.3% The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is in fifth place.

In the battle for an opportunity to jump over the barrier, "Bulgarian Rise" is "packaged" with 3.7%, "There Is Such a People" (TISP) - with 3.4% and "Levitsata" - with 3.2%.

The data is from a Gallup International Balkan survey for the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR), showing attitudes at the start of the campaign. The campaign is still unfolding, however, and the numbers at this point should, as always, be seen as a snapshot of declarative attitudes rather than a forecast. With close values, fluctuations in activity, political crisis, etc., dynamic developments are possible, including at the last moment.

People who said they will vote for certain are 40.6%. This implies a turnout close to that of the previous elections - as in the previous elections the declared levels of turnout at this stage were similar - but here too the campaign will be decisive and the percentage based on the formal voter lists is yet to be known. 4.4% of those who said they would vote would prefer "I support no one" if the election were held today.

The Gallup survey was conducted between February 24 and March 3, 2023, among 1,008 people using the face-to-face tablet method. The sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The maximum standard deviation is ±3.1% at the 50 percent shares. 1% of the...