The war in Ukraine: One year later

The first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine finds us in a familiar position. There has been a regular cycle in assessments of the conflict. The starting assumption of most people a year ago was that there was no way that Ukraine could resist the Russian onslaught, much less push Moscow back, so Ukraine's external friends needed to brace themselves for concessions by Kyiv and a new strategic reality. Russia was just too big and too well-armed for any other outcome.

The Ukrainians proved this narrative wrong by defeating the initial Russian effort to take Kyiv in February-March and expelling the invaders from the north of the country. In the course of that liberation, the world came to know the reality of Russian occupation in the atrocities committed in towns like Bucha and Irpin. The war then shifted to the east, as Moscow dramatically scaled back its war aims...