2023: Iran at the Doorstep of the Nuclear Club?
Last year saw escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. However, it is expected that the biggest crisis the world will face this year will arise in the Middle East.
According to the reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), at its Fordow nuclear site Iran je has enriched uranium to around 83.7 percent, which is 19 times higher than the 3.67% defined by the 2015 Agreement. If it transpires that the contents of the report is correct, bearing in mind that Iran has sufficient quantities of uranium enriched to 83.7% and is in possession of advanced centrifuges for production of fusion material required for development of a bomb, the question to be asked is in how many days or weeks at most will Iran become a member of the nuclear club. This would be an unprecedented scenario in the history of the Iranian nuclear program, which commenced in 1950 with the assistance of the US, and would mean crossing of all red lines with respect to the Iranian nuclear program. In fact, some subject matter experts believe that the achieved percentage of uranium enrichment is sufficient for development of an atomic bomb, bearing in mind that the atomic bomb thrown on the Japanese town of Hiroshima in 1945 was made of uranium with enrichment level of around 84%.
In the past two years revival of the nuclear agreement from 2015 was expected. US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the agreement in 2018. The fact is that after nine rounds of direct negotiations between Iran and the "4+1" (France, United Kingdom, Russia, China and Germany) group and the indirect talks with the United States in Vienna, no progress was achieved from April 2021 to April 2022. An agreement was brokered in September...
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