In Turkey, an election reckoning for the rise and fall of Erdogan’s economy

If Turks oust President Tayyip Erdogan in elections this month it will largely be because of an economic reversal that saw their prosperity, equality and ability to meet basic needs start to tumble midway through his two-decade reign.

The May 14 vote, which lands during the Turkish Republic's centenary year, is Erdogan's biggest test yet. Some polls show he is trailing an opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who would reverse his unorthodox and heavy-handed economic policies.

Erdogan's support has slipped in the last few years as a series of currency crashes and a deepening cost-of-living crisis were brought on by his policy of slashing interest rates in the face of soaring inflation.

But by other measures of economic well-being the decline began earlier, around 2013, which marked a turnaround after a decade of high growth and prosperity under Erdogan and...

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