Elections in France: Second Round Today with Potential for Far-Right Parliamentary Majority

France is facing the possibility of the far-right achieving either a relative or an absolute parliamentary majority as the second round of parliamentary elections takes place today

In the first round, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally emerged first with 32% of the vote, securing 76 seats out of the total 577. These seats were won by candidates who received over 51% of the vote in their respective constituencies. In the remaining districts, candidates who finished in the top two or received more than 12.5% of the registered vote advanced to the second round.

Following a strategic decision earlier this week, candidates from President Macron’s party and the left withdrew from constituencies where they had little chance of winning. As a result, most constituencies will see a head-to-head contest, often involving a far-right candidate.

This move has significantly reduced the likelihood of Marine Le Pen’s party securing an absolute majority, according to recent opinion polls. The latest Ipsos poll published in Le Monde indicates that the National Rally and its allies could secure between 175 and 205 seats, up from 89 in 2022. The left-wing New People’s Front could win between 145 and 175 seats, compared to 150 previously, while Macron’s “Together” faction is expected to see a sharp decline from 245 seats in 2022 to between 118 and 148 seats. The Republican party and other right-wing candidates are projected to win between 57 and 67 seats.

If these estimates hold, President Emmanuel Macron will need to consider forming a government that can avoid being toppled by a vote of no confidence. Another possibility is establishing a “technical government” for at least a year, as the French Constitution prohibits President Macron from calling new parliamentary elections before the summer of 2025.

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