They warn that years of political divisions, zero-sum games, distrust and poor communication between local leaders, as well as growing tensions among key regional and global actors, have left Bosnia a ticking time-bomb that could go off at any moment, leading to the collapse of the remaining joint institutions or even the breakup of the country.
The deep summer season is not yet over, but with Presidential elections due in November in Romania, political life is heating up. With the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) having quit the Social Democratic Party (PSD) led government, the PSD now finds itself without an absolute majority in Parliament.
This situation is even more remarkable given even a cursory glance at global aluminum prices. While aluminum prices have not fully recovered from their peak just before the 2008 financial crisis, they have returned to their price point in the early 2000s - which is higher than what the metal was trading for during most of the 1980s and 1990s.
The HDZ and its sister party in Bosnia and Herzegovina have long advocated ethnically 'federalising' Bosnia and Herzegovina. This is in line with the HDZ's embrace of convicted war criminals who took part in a joint effort to carve up the country with Bosnian Serb separatists during the 1992-95 war.
Fahrudin Radoncic Photo: EPA/FEHIM DEMIR
"We did not talk about any names, as that decision will be discussed in the following weeks," Adisa Omerbegovic Arapovic, the vice president of SBB, said in Sarajevo on Thursday, answering questions about whether Radoncic was promised the Bosnian Ministry of Security.