Government budget balance

In a recent Q&A, the Ministry of Finance outlined key aspects of the Greek economy’s future based on the Mid-term Fiscal Plan for 2025-2028. This plan details structural changes and projections for the economy over the next four years. Here are the highlights:

1. What are the European fiscal rules and how do they differ from the Stability Pact?

The adoption of the euro remains an unattainable goal for Romania due to its persistent fiscal deficit, according to Mugur Isărescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania (NBR), as cited by local media. Romania's deficit stood at 5.68% last year, one of the highest in the European Union, a figure that far exceeds the requirements for adopting the single currency.

According to preliminary data on the execution of the state budget on a modified cash basis, a surplus of €1.048 billion was recorded in the January-August 2024 period. This is a significant achievement, considering the 2024 Budget Report had forecasted a deficit of €2.774 billion for this period, compared to a €92 million deficit during the same period in 2023.

Bulgaria is currently experiencing a significant budget deficit, according to the latest data from Eurostat. In the first quarter of 2024, the country's seasonally adjusted budget deficit as a percentage of GDP was -5.6%. This places Bulgaria among the highest in the European Union for budget deficits relative to GDP, on par with France.

Europe's new budget rules can work only if Brussels can stretch them. Eleven countries including France, Italy and Belgium, posted 2023 deficits above 3% of GDP, the official high-water mark for debt. But not all of them may end up being sanctioned. The regime includes ample wiggle room, allowing countries plenty of time to adjust.

Türkiye's sole focus is now on price stability, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek has announced, projecting September inflation to potentially reach 40 percent.

Expected post-election fiscal tightening would strengthen the effectiveness of Türkiye's monetary policy, in the context of weakened transmission channels, Fitch Ratings has said. 

"If sustained, this improvement in policy consistency should support lower inflation, a narrower current account deficit and a recovery in international reserves," the rating agency added.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP for Greece this year and a decrease in public debt by 10 percentage points to 158.8% of GDP in its report on fiscal developments (Fiscal Monitor).

According to data released by the Treasury and Finance Ministry, the treasury cash balance posted a deficit of 198 billion Turkish Liras ($6.2 billion) in February.

Cash revenues rose from 208 billion liras in February 2023 to 563 billion liras last month, while expenditures leaped 100 percent to 761 billion liras.

The state budget balance for January-December of 2023 presented a deficit of 3.76 billion euros, against a target for a deficit of €8.34 billion that has been incorporated into the 2024 budget introductory report, and a deficit of €11.65 billion for 2022.