Macroeconomics

Turkish inflation rose year-on-year in June to a 23-year high of 78.62%, its acceleration for the 13th consecutive month boosted by the weakness of the local currency (the Turkish lira) and the negative effects of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, which are expressed in a continued strong increase in the prices of raw materials.

Inflation in Türkiye in June soared to an annual rate of 78.6 percent -- the highest in 24 years, according to official data released on July 4. 

The inflation rate reported by Türkiye's state statistics agency was the highest since January 1998.

Inflation had stood at 73.5 percent in May and at 15.0 percent at the start of last year.

Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati has stated that public finance continues to be one of the strongest elements of the Turkish economy despite all the negative developments in the world, and that the government has never and will never compromise on fiscal discipline.

The United States economy remains strong but a series of aggressive rate hikes meant to cool soaring inflation could eventually trigger a recession, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned.

The consumer confidence index that inched up 0.4 percent in May declined by 6.2 percent monthly in June, according to data released on June 22. 

The index, which stood at 81.7 in June 2021, declined from 67.8 in May to 63.4, this month, showed the regular consumer tendency survey conducted jointly by the Central Bank and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).

Central banks have ramped up their battle against runaway inflation, a necessary remedy that could have the adverse side effect of tipping countries into recession, analysts say.

The Bank of Japan on June 17 stuck to its long-held monetary easing policy even as other central banks around the world hike interest rates to tame inflation.    

But it said it would "pay due attention" to foreign exchange markets, a rare comment that comes after the yen hit a 24-year low against the dollar.    

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pledged to do whatever it takes to curb inflation, now raging at a four-decade high and defying the Fed's efforts so far to tame it.

Increasingly, it seems, doing so might require the one painful thing the Fed has sought to avoid: A recession.

The US Federal Reserve has announced the most aggressive rate hike in nearly 30 years and has announced readiness for a new increase next month as a major step in the fight against rising inflation.

British economic output declined for a second month in a row in April, weighed down by decades-high inflation, official data showed yesterday.    

Gross domestic product fell 0.3 percent in April after a drop of 0.1 percent in March, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.